Trump can upend political history — again – Latest News
It is a failsafe and oft-repeated line, one we’ve all heard uttered every election cycle as a good friend (or a TV talker) proclaims his undergraduate information of political patterns: “The president’s party loses seats in the midterm elections.”
It’s about as profound because the trailblazing financial advice “buy low, sell high,” or listening to your chubby, armchair-quarterback pal explaining “if the offense puts more points on the board, the Jets can win.”
Thanks, coach!
Unfortunately for each the GOP and Gang Green, these clichés virtually at all times maintain true.
But whereas the Jets may battle to attain this Sunday, the Republican Party underneath President Donald Trump is charging downfield, routinely stretching previous its first-down markers.
And recent knowledge this month — funding totals, handicappers’ forecasts and more — make the GOP appear higher positioned for the 2026 midterms than any get together within the White House since George W. Bush in 2002.
Apparently Democrats throughout the nation already see the writing on the wall: They’re more wanting to carry out the political equal of taking their ball and going home than to really play the sport.
Texas Republicans’ redistricting efforts acquired all of the blame from legacy media, however it wasn’t the Lone Star State that set the instance within the national tit-for-tat gerrymandering combat, nor even California’s Gavin Newsom or Illinois’ JD Pritzker, however New York’s own Gov. Kathy Hochul.
In 2022, Hochul’s own get together’s appointees on the Court of Appeals squashed her efforts at reimagining New York’s district maps as an unconstitutional splatter of Picasso-shaped contours.
Their push to rearrange the deck chairs ought to come as no shock.
Democrats are rudderless, routinely falling into the entice of standing up to Trump by defending fan favorites like carjackers in Washington, DC, antisemitic protesters at Columbia and a howling unlawful immigrant accused of human trafficking.
Now they’re paying the price, embattled on two fronts: voter registration and political donations.
Both point out the 2026 midterms gained’t be like 2018’s, when Nancy Pelosi flipped 41 seats to take back the House.
Last week we discovered that Joe Biden’s presidency noticed the largest-ever mass Democratic exodus: 2.1 million voters fled its ranks over 4 years as Biden’s missteps on inflation and immigration have been matched solely by his stumblings on staircases.
At the identical time, the GOP gained 2.4 million votes.
But the better trigger of worry in Democratic hearts is turning into more evident with each campaign-finance submitting: The GOP’s outdoors fundraising arms are transferring and shaking, whereas the Dems’ are struggling to seek out a spark.
The Senate Leadership Fund and its affiliate One Nation not too long ago launched its first set of filings underneath the stewardship of Majority Leader John Thune.
Together, the 2 raised a whopping $85 million — double their earlier document for the primary half of an off-election yr.
And whereas the Senate Leadership Fund is already spending closely in 5 battleground states, its $29 million money readily available is 3 times more than it reported on the identical level in 2023, and 5 instances what it had in 2021.
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On the House aspect, it’s a related story. The Congressional Leadership Fund and its affiliated American Action Network have raised a mixed $60 million during the primary half of 2025 — a document high, and almost double the $35 million they introduced in during the primary half of 2023.
And the House Republican-aligned teams have far outpaced their cross-aisle rivals: The House Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and the nonprofit House Majority Forward have managed to scrounge up simply $40 million this yr.
Party accounts show a widening divide as properly.
The Democratic National Committee raised a paltry $8.5 million in July and is sitting on simply $14 million within the bank — after shelling out more than $20 million to settle up payments racked up by Kamala Harris in her disastrous $1.5 billion presidential marketing campaign.
Can’t blame DNC donors for feeling gun-shy.
Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee raised $13 million final month and holds $84 million readily available.
The fundraising figures point out across-the-board GOP momentum that polling numbers and prediction fashions are beginning to replicate.
The Cook Report, a revered political handicapper, now locations 10 weak Dem seats of their toss-up column, to simply 8 on the GOP aspect; nonpartisan election-map web site 270 To Win shades a two-seat benefit to Republicans.
All this, of course, should be seen within the context of Trump, the unstoppable drive driving your complete spectrum of political opinion over the past 10 years.
Much to Democrats’ chagrin, Trump’s job-approval numbers are about 8 share factors greater at this time than they have been in August 2017.
In his time on the national stage, Trump has damaged typical political knowledge to bits.
Shattering the notion that his get together faces sure midterm doom could be the subsequent transfer in his playbook.
Joe Borelli is a managing director at Chartwell Strategy Group and former minority chief of the New York City Council.
