Beware Iran’s most devious weapon — a new ‘October – Latest News
The October shock was born in Iran — and 46 years later, the Islamic Republic could also be getting ready to launch one other one.
In 1980, the hostage disaster — 52 Americans seized on the US embassy in Tehran the 12 months earlier than during Iran’s Islamic Revolution — dominated the presidential race between incumbent Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan.
Reagan’s marketing campaign supervisor Bill Casey, assuming Iran would dread his hawkish boss’ victory, anxious that Iran would possibly release the hostages proper earlier than Election Day — and hand Carter a last-minute win.
Seeking to short-circuit what he dubbed an “October surprise,” Casey advised the press of his concern, and the phrase caught.
Today it’s used for any late-breaking occasion timed to swing an election.
But Casey was incorrect: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had his own causes to need Carter defeated.
Carter had admitted the hated Shah to the United States, making him the face of Washington’s decades-long assist for the monarchy; Carter had frozen Iranian belongings, imposed sanctions and damaged diplomatic relations with Tehran.
In Khomeini’s eyes, humiliating Carter and denying him the political triumph of the hostages’ homecoming served the Islamic Revolution’s pursuits.
He held the hostages via Election Day and past, releasing them within minutes of Reagan’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 1981 — extraordinary timing that fueled allegations of a secret Reagan-Iran deal, which exhaustive congressional investigations ultimately debunked.
By letting the hostages dangle, Khomeini efficiently manipulated American politics.
We could quickly face one other Iranian ploy aimed toward leveraging overseas elections to weaken the regime’s enemies.
Israel’s election is scheduled for Oct. 27; the US midterms are Nov. 3, precisely one week later.
That makes the tip of October a probably harmful window for regime mischief.
Tehran might assault Israel immediately or engineer a critical escalation via one of its terror proxies — calculating that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, days earlier than an election, would have little selection however to reply forcefully.
Imagine a ballistic missile barrage, huge enough to overwhelm Israeli defenses, killing scores of civilians in Tel Aviv or Haifa.
Or an Iranian terrorist proxy finishing up a mass-casualty assault in opposition to an Israeli population heart.
The exact situation is unknowable, however the calculation just isn’t: Inflict enough carnage that no Israeli prime minister might permit it to go unanswered.
But Tehran could be relying on that response.
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A strong Israeli retaliation might set off a broader regional escalation, drive the Iran battle to the highest of the information, spike oil and gasoline costs, and create critical political and financial problems for President Donald Trump and Republicans preventing to retain the House and Senate simply days later.
In the regime’s superb situation, Tehran would take in the Israeli blow, play the sufferer, and wait to see if Republicans lose.
If they do, Iran will get precisely the narrative it desires: Israel helped value Republicans Congress.
Tehran might then exploit the following recriminations to deepen divisions between Washington and Jerusalem, relying on American critics of Israel, on each the precise and the left, to hammer home that message.
That makes the times instantly previous the Israeli election a notably engaging window for an Iranian provocation.
We ought to be fascinated about this now — as a result of there’s little doubt Tehran is already doing so.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is aware of our political system properly; it research our divisions and appears for alternatives to use them.
The Treasury Department sanctioned IRGC-linked entities in 2020 and again in 2024 for utilizing disinformation and hacked materials to intrude in US elections.
Countering an October shock — whether or not this situation or others — requires close US-Israel coordination over the subsequent two months to war-game the chances.
American and Israeli political, navy and intelligence officers ought to agree on potential responses earlier than missiles are flying, feelings are high, oil costs are spiking, ballot numbers are dropping and each governments are working at cross-purposes — straight into the Islamic Republic’s entice .
One option ought to not less than be thought-about: Revenge could also be a dish higher served cold.
If Iran launches an assault intentionally designed to impress Israel earlier than the elections, Israel might defend itself, take in what it will probably, set up Iranian duty, and wait — till after each elections — to retaliate at a time of its selecting.
But Trump would need to give Netanyahu the political cowl needed to not reply instantly, and a dedication that the IDF might act after the midterms.
Trump might additionally clarify publicly, properly earlier than October, that Washington is conscious of the potential regime trick, saying that an election-season provocation will fail to divide the United States and Israel, and retaliation will inevitably observe.
Forty-six years in the past, an ayatollah exploited an American election and helped hobble a sitting American president.
The present ayatollah shouldn’t be allowed to run the identical playbook on this one.
Mark Dubowitz is chief government of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
