Experts explain when petrol and diesel costs will | Tech News

Average petrol costs have climbed to just about 155p a litre as costs proceed to rise amid the Iran battle – however consultants counsel “we’re likely close to the peak if the ceasefire holds”. Though one cautioned “it’s still not impossible for fuel to reach £2 per litre, even with the prospect of peace”.

Petrol costs have reached 154.65p a litre on average throughout the UK – nearly 20p a litre increased than on the outbreak of hostilities. This represents the best stage since October 2023 and marks a rise of more than 17 p.c because the battle started six weeks in the past.

Diesel has now hit 186.75p a litre on average within the UK – the best stage since November 2022. Some drivers have even reported recognizing costs exceeding £2 a litre at sure forecourts.

In the US, average petrol costs have soared more than 20 p.c from $3.45 a gallon to $4.16 in only one month. Mounting costs on the pump may heap stress on US President Donald Trump forward of the mid-term elections in November.

However, some welcome information emerged right this moment with a 14-day ceasefire brokered between the US and Iran. Consequently, oil costs have eased and markets are responding favourably. The price of Brent crude oil dropped by roughly 13% to just about $95 (£71) a barrel this morning.

Prem Raja, head of trading ground at Currencies 4 You, suggested motorists that it was price procuring round for the best offers and prompt costs might have reached their peak.

He added: “Petrol prices tend to lag oil, so even though crude has started to fall on the ceasefire news, drivers won’t feel it immediately. We’ve already seen oil drop sharply, but pump prices are still reflecting the earlier spike when supply through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. In terms of a peak, we’re likely close or already there if the ceasefire holds.

“Prices surged shortly attributable to panic and provide fears, and traditionally, that is when you see the sharpest strikes. But coming down is all the time slower. If the ceasefire sticks and oil continues decrease, then yes, petrol costs ought to regularly comply with. The key risk is that flows do not totally normalise immediately, which may keep costs elevated within the short time period.

“For drivers, the main way to save right now is being price aware. There can be a meaningful difference between stations, especially between motorway services and local forecourts, so it’s worth shopping around.”

Tony Redondo, founder of Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, acknowledged that forecourt costs would ease downwards regularly ought to the ceasefire maintain.

He added: “Expect a ‘rocket and feather’ effect. Pump prices rose quickly but will drift down slowly, likely staying above 145p per litre through the summer, down from around 157p, driven by Middle East conflict. A two-week ceasefire announced overnight has led analysts to suggest we may be in the ‘peak zone’, with wholesale costs expected to stabilise.

“However, infrastructure injury and the risk premium on the Strait of Hormuz imply costs will not fall sharply. Much will rely on whether or not the ceasefire results in significant peace talks or hostilities resume.

“To save money, favour supermarket forecourts, which average 4.4p cheaper than branded stations. Bear in mind that the 5p fuel duty cut is due to begin tapering in September 2026, which could offset any global price drops.”

Antonia Medlicott, founder and MD at London-based Investing Insiders, warned that on a regular basis costs remained stubbornly high.

She went on to say: “The jump in petrol prices speaks less about the current conflict and more about markets pricing in risk, particularly when it comes to global supply routes. Unless there is a further escalation that disrupts supply, this could stabilise sooner than was previously anticipated.

“However, drivers could be smart to not assume that a ceasefire will lead to instant aid on the pumps, and the larger difficulty for households is how uncovered they’re to those repeated shocks. While spikes may be momentary in isolation, the cumulative impact on day-to-day costs may be important and enduring.”

Samuel Mather-Holgate, MD and IFA at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, cautioned that petrol prices were likely to remain elevated.

He added: “The ceasefire within the Middle East has seen oil costs plummet, however this is not the tip of the story. Volatility stays and petrol costs will keep elevated till there seems to be an enduring peace, and with Israel within the combine that may very well be a manner off.

“Although Trump wants out of the war he started, Netanyahu certainly won’t be happy with a hollow ‘victory’ and will want to finish the job. Jitters will remain and petrol prices will stay high for some time. It’s still not impossible for fuel to reach £2 per litre, even with the prospect of peace.”