Solana DATs Could Move Price 10x Faster Than | Solana News

An X post by Bonk core contributor Nom (@TheOnlyNom) argues that a new wave of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) autos geared toward SOL might transfer price more than comparable Bitcoin or Ether treasuries—as a result of of Solana’s smaller market cap, heavy staking that suppresses instantly accessible float, and the power for treasuries to buy discounted or locked tokens earlier than they ever contact the open market.

Why Solana DATs Could Move Price 10x Faster Than ETH

“SOL DATs will be more efficient at accumulating currently trading supply (which is different than circulating supply) compared to ETH or BTC DATs,” Nom wrote, including that “the recent announcements of $2.5b in SOL DATs should be looked at like a $30b raise for ETH or $91b for BTC.”

Nom opens with disclosures and caveats reasonably than price calls. “I’m not going to argue whether inflation is good or bad, I have already spent enough time talking on that and look forward to the changes,” he wrote. He additionally underscores his own positioning and bias: “I am a spot SOL, staked SOL, and locked SOL holder (thanks to an SPV on the estate SOL) … I would also like tokens I own to go up in value—so a flat token price is bad in my point of view.”

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On the overhang from the FTX chapter property, Nom contends that the risk is shrinking fast even when it nonetheless looms within the narrative. “At the time of bankruptcy, FTX’s estate held 41m SOL tokens … with the majority going to the folks at Galaxy and Pantera with strike prices of approximately $64 and $102 … this is currently massively in the money at Solana’s current ~$190 price tag,” he wrote.

Based on his studying of staking accounts and vesting schedules, Nom estimates the “‘Estate SOL’ is currently at about 5 million units remaining to be unlocked, or about $1b notional.” He units that in opposition to broader unlocks: “From the good folks over at 4shpool (gelato.sh) there’s about 21m [units] of Solana remaining to unlock until 2028, or ~$4b notional at current pricing … ‘Estate SOL’ is ~1/4 of all remaining SOL to be unlocked.”

The thread’s central mechanism is circulation versus float. Nom argues that issuance plus unlocks create persistent sell stress until matched by price-insensitive consumers. “This matters for one specific number that we need to focus on, which is the amount of SOL hitting the market on a daily basis,” he wrote.

“If you give someone tokens for free (staking inflation/unlocks) or at a discount (FTX SOL) — you can expect some % of people to sell. I assume 100% of this inflation of 37.5m SOL in the next year to be sold.” That units a high bar for demand: “In order to offset 37.5m SOL a year at $200 SOL … you need ~$7.5b/year in inflows, or ~$20.5m per day.”

The Differences Between SOL And ETH

Crucially, he argues, DATs can meet that bar more effectively in the event that they accumulate outdoors the open market. “If the DATs can more efficiently buy SOL at a discount from either the estate SOL, or other locked SOL areas, that improves the efficiency of the inflows,” he wrote.

“Raising $400m to buy SOL at a 5% discount is equivalent to $420m in inflows, which is better than $400m in inflows—the only question is how do you equate the time value of buying SOL off the market today, vs removing future sales tomorrow.”

He provides that, on his numbers, issuance dominates the provision image: “Our inflation over the next 3 years is greater than the unlocks (EOY 2028 as end of lock schedules) … and the FTX SOL is only a quarter of the remaining unlocks—so the DATs buying the estate SOL rather than the market is not a realistic concern.”

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Nom insists the distinction between “trading supply” and headline “circulating supply” is what makes SOL particularly delicate to regular consumers. “Circulating supply is NOT equivalent to amount available on the market, especially for staked assets. You cannot buy staked SOL, but you can buy LSTs,” he wrote. Citing present snapshots, he notes, “Solana has 384m of its 608m SOL staked currently, or 63.1% off the market. LSTs account for 33.5m SOL, so let’s put that back as supply available to buy and round it to 350m/508m off the market, or 57.5% off the market and unavailable for purchase (at least with a 2 day lag).” By his math, that thinner instant float means every new greenback has more price influence than on chains with decrease staking penetration.

Valuation magnifies the impact, he says. “Solana is at a much lower valuation than ETH or BTC … a dollar spent on a SOL DAT is like $5 on an ETH DAT or $22 on a BTC DAT when looking at relative valuations.” Adjusting for staked versus readily tradable provide, he pushes the comparability additional: “When you factor in the circulating supply amounts with staking, that’s closer to 11x for ETH efficiency or 36x for BTC efficiency.”

He additionally weaves within the position of ETFs and company autos alongside treasuries. “SSK is doing some of the work at roughly $2m/day in inflows since launch, however the inflation schedule needs 10x inflows — and this will likely come with further ETF approvals,” he wrote, arguing that DATs have a flywheel impact: “These DATs take supply off the market, they earn tokens based on staking yield … and they make subsequent buys by vehicles like ETFs more effective at moving the market.” On sector management, he’s blunt in regards to the need for a standard-bearer: “SOL DATs need a Michael Saylor or a Tom Lee, narrative is the name of the game.”

His abstract distills the thesis to a few strains: “Right now less than 1% of supply is under SOL DAT management, this will likely shift to 3% with the 3 newly announced vehicles, and 5% with planned future vehicles.” “Current ETF inflows are not sufficient,” he added, “however larger vehicles should be approved by start of Q4 and SOL remains a contender for institutional bid.”

Solana Treasury Boom In The Making

Notably, Nom’s framing arrives amid a cascade of new autos. On Aug. 25–26, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital and Jump Crypto are in talks to raise roughly $1 billion to construct a publicly traded Solana treasury company, with Cantor Fitzgerald as lead banker. Separately, Pantera Capital is weighing a plan to raise up to $1.25 billion to transform a Nasdaq-listed firm into “Solana Co.,” a devoted SOL treasury vehicle.

Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed Sharps Technology introduced a $400 million non-public placement explicitly to determine what it calls the most important company Solana treasury so far. Together, these offers sketch out not less than $2.5–$3.0 billion of potential new institutional demand pointed squarely at SOL.

At press time, SOL traded at $204.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com