XRP Ledger Congestion Could Burn 1 Billion Coins A | XRP News
Software Engineer and founder of numerous AI begin ups Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) argues on X that the majority XRP burn projections are understated as a result of they assume at present’s low transaction charges persist even below heavy community utilization. In his framing, sustained congestion on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) might push charges larger through the protocol’s load-scaling mechanics, probably destroying on the order of one billion XRP yearly.
XRPL Load Factor Could Turn Fees Into A Major XRP Burn
In a thread titled “The ‘Supply Meltdown’ Simulation,” Vincent Van Code claimed “everyone is calculating the XRP burn wrong,” beginning with the premise that the generally cited base payment of 0.00001 XRP solely displays a quiet community. “But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?” he wrote, positioning load-driven payment escalation because the pivotal variable reasonably than uncooked throughput alone.
Van Code’s simulation walks by means of a number of payment regimes on the similar headline exercise price, emphasizing that burn adjustments dramatically when the ledger is full and the “Load Factor” will increase charges to discourage spam. “As the ledger fills up, the Load Factor kicks in to stop spam,” he wrote. “Fees don’t just stay low; they scale exponentially.”
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He anchored the thread with 4 situations and each day burn estimates, beginning with what he referred to as a “standard day” of 1.2 million transactions and roughly 450 XRP burned per day. From there, he modeled “global adoption” on the acknowledged 3,400 TPS ceiling, translating to about 293 million transactions per day at base payment and an estimated 2,937 XRP burned each day.
The more aggressive claims come when he holds transaction quantity fixed at that 293 million-per-day degree however lifts the efficient payment through congestion. In his “congestion hike” case, he assumes the load-scaled payment rises to 0.001 XRP, implying about 293,760 XRP burned per day. In a “full gridlock” case at 0.01 XRP per transaction, he estimates 2,937,600 XRP burned each day.
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The thesis leans on a structural characteristic of XRPL charges: they don’t seem to be paid out to validators or any sponsoring entity, however faraway from circulation. Van Code underscored that distinction instantly. “The fees aren’t paid to miners. They aren’t paid to Ripple. They are destroyed forever.”
The “Supply Meltdown” Simulation 🌋
Headline: Everyone is calculating the $XRP burn unsuitable. 🧵
The “base fee” (0.00001 XRP) solely exists when the community is quiet. But what occurs if the world truly begins utilizing the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS restrict?
The Congestion Math:
As the…— Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) January 24, 2026
From that, he attracts his headline conclusion: (*1*) framing community demand—and the congestion it creates—as “the ultimate deflationary engine.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.88.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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