XRP Mirrors 2021–2022 Setup As SOPR Turns Sub 1 | XRP News
XRP is flashing a acquainted on-chain stress sample after slipping beneath its combination holder price foundation, a transfer Glassnode says has traditionally coincided with capitulation, loss realization, and a gradual grind towards stabilization quite than an quick rebound.
In a Feb. 9 post on X, the on-chain analytics firm stated XRP “lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling,” pointing to a sharp deterioration in spent output profitability. Glassnode flagged its Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) on a 7-day EMA foundation falling from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 “now,” including that “holders are realizing significant losses” and that “on-chain profitability flipped negative.”
SOPR prints beneath 1 are sometimes learn because the market spending cash at a loss on combination, a regime that may persist when sellers are pressured to exit and bids are primarily coming from patrons with longer horizons. In Glassnode’s framing, that’s what makes the present setup rhyme with a prior XRP cycle: “This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.”
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The Feb. 9 warning isn’t an remoted call. On Feb. 1, Glassnode wrote that “The XRP Realized Price is trading at $1.48,” including that “The current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022.” Weeks earlier, on Jan. 19, the firm again pointed to a 2022 echo, saying XRP’s construction “closely resembles that of February 2022,” and describing a cohort pressure the place newer patrons are accumulating beneath the price foundation of longer-held provide.
Glassnode’s Jan. 19 post additionally emphasised the behavioral aspect of that construction: because the sample persists, “psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.”
XRP Capitulation Or Breakdown Next?
Some market members handled the sub-1 SOPR regime much less as a pink flag and more as a course of of transferring provide from weaker arms to stronger ones. One reply, from the account @investorie, framed it explicitly as a bottom-building signal:
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(*1*)
Another respondent, 0xsimba, drew a parallel to Bitcoin’s forced-selling episodes whereas echoing Glassnode’s historic comparability: “When SOPR drops below 1 for extended period, pain transferring from weak to strong hands. Sep 2021–May 2022 precedent, Prolonged consolidation then recovery. Setup is forming. Signal needs confirmation.”
If Glassnode’s comparability holds, the near-term takeaway is much less about a single inflection level and more about whether or not XRP stays trapped in a loss-realization regime long enough to exhaust marginal sellers, setting the stage for stabilization solely after profitability metrics stop deteriorating and SOPR can reclaim, and maintain, the break-even line.
At press time, XRP traded at $1.4225.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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