Why geopolitical alliance between the US and India – Latest News
President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs on India, totaling 50%, ought to dispel illusions that the US–India relationship is a heat alliance of like-minded democracies.
The transfer marks a sharp escalation in what’s now brazenly a commerce struggle. Trump cited India’s ongoing imports of discounted Russian oil, accusing New Delhi of serving to fund Moscow’s struggle machine and promoting refined Russian crude on the open market for revenue. India responded sharply, hinting at retaliation. Yet Trump pressed on: The first 25% tariff takes impact this week, with one other 25% kicking in later this month.
This is one of the harshest tariff regimes the US has ever imposed on a main trading associate — and it’s geared toward a nation Washington claims to view as a key ally.
President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs on India, totaling 50%, ought to dispel illusions that the US–India relationship is a heat alliance of like-minded democracies. Trump is seen right here with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. REUTERS
On paper, India seems to be like the good associate. It’s the world’s most populous democracy, largely English-speaking, and deeply embedded in the US financial system. Bilateral commerce in items and companies hit $212 billion in 2024, with the US commerce deficit at about $46 billion. India serves as a key manufacturing hub for prescription drugs, attire and tech.
The US sees India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. But India doesn’t see the relationship by way of sentimental eyes.
Since the Cold War, New Delhi has pursued a doctrine of non-alignment, which has developed into strategic autonomy. It joins US-led boards like the Quad — by which, alongside Japan and Australia, they goal to advertise a free and open Indo-Pacific with out demanding formal allegiance. But India can also be a member of the BRICS group of developing nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It buys weapons from the US and France, but in addition Russia, sustaining pleasant ties with Iran and boycotting no one.
Russia is a long-time protection associate and power provider. India now imports more than a third of its oil from Russia, totaling over $50 billion yearly — which is a enormous spike since 2021. Modi is seen right here with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. AP
That intuition is rooted in deep historic reminiscence. Colonized by Britain and sidelined by US Cold War assist for Pakistan, India emerged with a fierce need to keep away from overseas dependency. Especially underneath the nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it sees itself not as a junior associate in a Western-led order however as a civilizational energy asserting its own sovereignty.
This helps clarify India’s refusal to isolate Russia over the Ukraine struggle. Russia is a long-time protection associate and power provider. India now imports more than a third of its oil from Russia, totaling over $50 billion yearly — which is a enormous spike since 2021, which means India has taken benefit of Russia’s reductions, and which makes it the largest importer of Russian crude forward of China and Iran. Some of that oil is refined and re-exported to Western markets by way of a sanctions loophole.
It’s a profitable association India has no intention of abandoning — and it retains Vladimir Putin in business.
That’s the connection driving occasions these previous few weeks: As Trump has misplaced religion in Putin’s willingness to have interaction on ending the Ukraine struggle, so has his impatience with Modi gone by way of the roof.
The US needs India’s help in containing China and securing international provide chains. Modi is seen right here with China’s President Xi Jinping. Getty Images
But Trump’s response — tariffs as geopolitical punishment — is uncommon. Tariffs are sometimes used to guard home industry. Using them to implement overseas coverage goals introduces a totally different logic. Is it insanity? Not fully. Tariffs are one of the few levers a president can pull unilaterally. But the India case exposes the dangers of this strategy.
India is unlikely to cave. With 1.4 billion people (the most in the world), a $4.2 trillion financial system (tied with Japan for fourth in the world) and first rate financial growth, it doesn’t take kindly to coercion. Worse, this tactic invitations prices of hypocrisy. Other nations nonetheless commerce with Russia in fertilizer, chemical compounds and refined merchandise.
There’s additionally blowback. Tariffs usually raise costs for US customers, notably in sectors like generic medication and clothes. They additionally threaten to undermine provide chain shifts away from China. Companies like Apple have moved manufacturing to India — solely to seek out their new base hit with punitive tariffs. Meanwhile, India might retaliate in opposition to US exports in power and aerospace.
The US sees India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. But India doesn’t see the relationship by way of sentimental eyes. Carlo – stock.adobe.com
American policymakers of the pre-Trump period spoke of a shared democratic identification and mutual values. But the actual relationship is transactional. The US needs India’s help in containing China and securing international provide chains. India needs American technology, markets and investment. That’s why cooperative efforts like the iCET tech partnership and semiconductor joint ventures might succeed the place discuss of “friendship” falls flat.
The indicators of this may be delicate. For instance, Trump has been bragging in current weeks about having averted struggle between India and Pakistan earlier this 12 months. Putting apart the doubtless exaggeration, it didn’t escape discover in New Delhi that he was inserting India — an imperfect however pluralistic democracy — on equal footing with its less-than-democratic rival. For a nation deeply acutely aware of its international standing, this absolutely strengthened the notion that the Trump administration views India not as a associate of precept, however as simply one other actor to be cajoled as the scenario calls for.
So it’s no shock that commerce negotiations have repeatedly stalled over tariffs and market entry. India maintains high limitations on agricultural imports and resists regulatory alignment. The US complains of protectionism; India sees imperialism. Neither is fully incorrect. India’s overseas coverage is rational, pragmatic, sometimes aggressive and ruthlessly self-interested. Trump’s tariffs might sting, however they gained’t alter that reality.
In 1949, President Herbert Hoover met with Indian activist Mahatma Gandhi in New Delhi. Bettmann Archive
The discomfort lies in letting go of the fantasy that India is a democratic soulmate. If each side settle for that the relationship just isn’t constructed on shared values however overlapping pursuits, then actual partnership remains to be doable. For the likes of Trump and Modi, that’s about the best which you can hope for.
Dan Perry led Associated Press protection in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and served as AP’s particular worldwide editor. He publishes Ask Questions Later on Substack.
