Cuomo’s mayoral bid has life now that Adams has – Latest News
Mayor Eric Adams’ determination to finish his mayoral marketing campaign is unsurprising. The scandal-tarred incumbent was working a poor fourth in most polls and had no likelihood of re-election.
His alternative nonetheless can have important repercussions. His withdrawal was the primary domino to fall within the sequence of occasions Andrew Cuomo must have any shot of beating Zohran Mamdani in November.
The polls clearly show how exhausting Cuomo’s activity is. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Mamdani forward by a whopping 18.7 share factors.
More importantly, it exhibits Mamdani receiving 44.4% of the full vote. That’s already prone to be enough to win in something short of a two-man race.
His lead would nonetheless be within the double digits even when each single individual at present backing Adams switches to Cuomo.
Adams was receiving solely 8.4% within the remaining polling average earlier than his departure. Adding these votes to Cuomo’s nonetheless leaves Mamdani with a daunting 10.3% lead.
It’s extremely unlikely Adams’ remaining supporters would change to Cuomo in these numbers. The final three polls testing a three-man race (Mamdani versus Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa) exhibits Mamdani main by between 14 and 16 factors.
Clearly many Adams voters desire the progressive Mamdani to the outdated, reasonable Cuomo, himself tarred by the scandals that compelled him to resign from the governorship.
Adams’ withdrawal does, nonetheless, set up Cuomo’s subsequent and most important problem: convincing Sliwa to drop out too.
Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani has a 44.4% polling average within the race for New York City mayor, in line with Real Clear Politics. Stefano Giovannini
Sliwa’s backing comes nearly totally from New York’s Republican minority. These largely conservative voters don’t want the leftist Mamdani, however additionally they don’t want the liberal Cuomo.
As long as Sliwa is within the race, he’ll get enough of these votes to make sure Mamdani’s triumph.
Sliwa needs to remain within the race, but it surely’s not possible to see how he can win.
He acquired 28% in his 2021 mayoral marketing campaign towards Adams, and President Donald Trump gained solely about 30% within the 5 boroughs in 2024.
Even Lee Zeldin gained solely 30.2% in New York City in his 2022 race towards Gov. Kathy Hochul. That’s not going be enough to win.
The reality is that Republicans have by no means gained a New York City mayoral race with out profitable liberal votes.
Fiorello LaGuardia gained each the GOP and the City Fusion celebration nominations in 1933, whereas John Lindsay, Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg obtained both the Liberal or the Independence Party endorsements.
Sliwa has no vital non-Republican backing and is unlikely to get any.
Nor can Sliwa peel votes away from Cuomo to develop into the consensus anti-Mamdani candidate: Cuomo is getting the votes of reasonable and institution Democrats and independents and has the money to run the marketing campaign essential to retain their assist.
Sliwa can’t assault Cuomo from the middle and lacks the marketing campaign infrastructure to make a dent within the costly New York media market.
If Sliwa can’t win, that leaves Cuomo as the one doubtlessly viable anti-Mamdani candidate. But Adams’ weak spot means Cuomo’s likelihood at victory requires convincing Sliwa’s voters to hitch him to stop Mamdani.
That’s a lot simpler stated than executed.
Cuomo can’t get these votes by attacking Sliwa, who’s nicely positioned as the sort of conservative Republicans desire. Cuomo’s lifetime of liberalism precludes him from profitable GOP votes so long as Sliwa is within the race.
It’s unclear Cuomo might win even when Sliwa drops out.
The three most up-to-date polls testing a Mamdani versus Cuomo head-to-head contest nonetheless show Mamdani comfortably forward with between 47 and 49%.
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo campaigning at Bethany Baptist Church in Brooklyn. on Sept. 28, 2025. Kyle Mazza – CNP/Shutterstock
Those polls additionally show how reluctant Republicans are to back Cuomo even towards the socialist Mamdani. The undecided share of the vote within the Marist ballot, for instance, rises from a mere 5% within the four-way race to 12% within the head-to-head.
Mamdani would solely need a tiny fraction of that 12% to back him — or determine to solid a protest vote for one of the minor candidates on the poll — for him to beat Cuomo.
Cuomo will need to hammer Mamdani on the crime challenge to have any likelihood.
Polls show crime is both voters’ high or second concern, and Mamdani’s previous statements in favor of “defunding the police” current a large goal: A current Suffolk University ballot exhibits 74% of New Yorkers oppose defunding the NYPD, with 56% strongly opposing the idea.
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And Cuomo has tons of votes to gain amongst voters who prioritize crime. The current CBS News ballot exhibits he’s solely profitable 39% of voters who say “crime and safety” is their No. 1 challenge, barely forward of the 28% selecting Sliwa. Win these voters — and the 16% of them who at present select Mamdani — and Cuomo might pull off an upset.
He can even need to shift his strategy away from the media-reliant strategy that characterised his main effort and towards one that additionally has a strong ground sport.
Cuomo could be smart to focus on low-propensity older voters (polls show him doing best with New Yorkers over 45) with volunteer efforts to persuade them to solid early ballots.
In short, Adams’ retreat opens up a very tiny pathway for Cuomo to come back from behind.
But it stays a daunting uphill climb, one he isn’t prone to efficiently make.
Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow on the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
